Mystery Poll Tests Fresno Voters on Sales Tax Measures — Campaign Won’t Say If They’re Behind It

Someone’s asking Fresno County voters what they think about two November tax measures — and won’t say who wants to know.

A text-message poll sent the week of Aug. 17 asked detailed questions about Measure S, a countywide half-cent sales tax for transportation projects, and Measure D, a city-only tax going to Fresno’s general fund. The poll came from Colorado-based Luce Research, who cited “client privacy” when asked who hired them.

The Yes on S campaign declined to say whether they commissioned the survey. The answer might come when the next campaign finance report goes public Sept. 24.

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Measure S is headed to the Nov. 3 ballot after a Fresno County judge ruled Monday that voters would see it in November — not March 2028, when a majority of county supervisors had wanted it delayed.

The poll started with basic demographic questions — age, gender, income, whether the person lives in a city — then asked about political leanings and whether they voted in 2024’s presidential election.

It tested trust levels for specific names: former Fresno Mayor Alan Autry, Clovis Councilmember Lynne Ashbeck, labor unions, public safety professionals. It also asked about Dr. Carmela Sosa, a pediatrician with Valley Children’s Healthcare and a board member of Central Valley Community Foundation — the same foundation that gave $810,000 to the Measure S campaign.

Autry, who said he supports Measure S, called it “an investment, not really a tax.” He added: “You just got to get this thing done because you don’t know what’s going to be around the corner in two years.”

The survey walked respondents through arguments for and against both measures. For Measure S, it tested phrases like “keeping tax dollars local,” “prioritizing to fix the worst roads,” and “creating new jobs.”

For Measure D, it used the exact ballot language, then offered competing statements — supporters saying the measure is needed “to ensure there is no lapse in funding for maintaining local streets, roads, and sidewalks,” opponents calling it a potential “slush fund.” The poll asked if those arguments would change anyone’s vote.

A spokesperson for Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer said the city didn’t commission this poll. The city typically uses a different firm, FM3, which Dyer said conducted a Measure D poll for about $33,000 before the city council voted to place the measure on the ballot in July. The Bee has filed a Public Records Act request for that poll’s questions and results.

If both measures pass, only Measure S would take effect — Measure D has a sunset provision that ends it in 10 years or whenever a countywide measure like Measure S passes, whichever comes first.

The Breakdown

• Measure S: A half-cent countywide sales tax dedicated to transportation projects, on the Nov. 3 ballot after a judge blocked the Board of Supervisors’ attempt to delay it to March 2028.
• Measure D: A city-of-Fresno-only tax going to the general fund — meaning the city council can spend it however they choose — with a 10-year sunset or until a countywide measure passes.
• The poll: Sent via text by Luce Research the week of Aug. 17, testing voter attitudes on both measures, trust in named local figures, and specific arguments for and against each tax.
• Who paid for it: Unknown. The Yes on S campaign won’t say, and the pollster won’t name the client. Campaign finance reports due Sept. 24 might reveal it.

What This Means for You

Your vote on these two measures will determine how transportation projects get funded countywide and whether Fresno gets additional general fund revenue with a 10-year sunset. But you’re being asked to make that choice without knowing who’s spending money to shape how you see it.

When a campaign hires a poll but won’t claim it, what you’re seeing is the testing phase — the part where they figure out which arguments move voters before they spend real money repeating them in mailers, ads, and endorsements. The fact that this poll tested trust in specific names (Autry, Ashbeck, Sosa) suggests those names might show up in the campaign’s public pitch later. Whether that matters to you depends on whether you think a campaign should own its research or keep it quiet until the finance report makes it public weeks before Election Day.

What You Can Do

Both measures will be on your Nov. 3 ballot. The next campaign finance report is due Sept. 24 and should reveal who paid for this poll. If you want to see what the city’s own Measure D polling found, the Bee has requested it under the Public Records Act — when it’s released, it will be public record you can request as well.

What to Watch

A poll this detailed — testing specific local names, trust levels, competing arguments — isn’t just measuring opinion, it’s mapping which buttons to push. When you see Alan Autry or Dr. Sosa’s name attached to a Measure S endorsement later, or a mailer repeating the exact “keep tax dollars local” or “slush fund” phrasing this poll tested, you’re watching the poll’s homework get turned into campaign strategy.

The bigger question: why wouldn’t a campaign own this poll? If the Yes on S campaign did commission it, refusing to confirm that now while the finance report stays private for another month buys them time to test messages without accountability for how they’re testing them. A voter deciding whether to trust a campaign’s pitch might reasonably want to know the campaign spent money figuring out which pitch would work on them — and whether that homework is being done in public or kept quiet as long as the law allows.