Delayed federal validation shows 9.2% homelessness increase across Fresno-Madera; officials cite budget tie, methodology concerns
The federally validated 2025 Point-in-Time count recorded 4,905 sheltered and unsheltered individuals across Fresno and Madera counties on January 28, 2025 — a 9.2% increase from 4,493 in 2023. The Fresno-Madera Continuum of Care held the locally validated results for several months while waiting for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development to post them publicly, releasing the figures only after HUD published its national summary.
Among those counted, 29% cited a substance use disorder and 31% reported a serious mental illness. Five percent were younger than 18. Officials reported more than 4,000 beds available year-round across both counties, with 84% occupied on the night of the count.
Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer said at a news conference at Fresno City Hall that the results align with what outreach workers have observed. “Our outreach workers go out every quarter, and they have been doing over the last couple of years an informal count, to look at what numbers are truly out there,” Dyer said. “That is to interview people and try to get them services.”
Dyer said the city tracks monthly service acceptance and shelter utilization — approximately 250 people per month use shelter beds. “I can’t think of a time when we had a day where we said, ‘Well, sorry, we don’t have a shelter bed,'” Dyer said. “Because we always have people exiting the shelters.”
Fresno County Supervisor Luis Chavez acknowledged measurement challenges. “It is virtually impossible to count every single folk that are homeless here in our community, but we do the best that we can,” Chavez said.
The 2025 count used a visual tally method the Continuum of Care has since replaced. The 2026 count, conducted January 27, 2026, used a survey-based approach asking questions about demographics, disabilities, and causes of homelessness. Preliminary unvalidated 2026 figures show 1,619 unsheltered and 1,635 sheltered — a total of 3,254, down from the validated 2025 figure. Unsheltered individuals who declined the survey will not be counted in the 2026 total.
Dyer identified conservatorship authority as a barrier to addressing chronic homelessness among individuals with severe mental illness. “I will say that the governor attempted to create a system very similar to that through CARE Court,” Dyer said. “Unfortunately, as it made its way through the process, it got watered down.” He said CARE Court allows judges to mandate treatment plans but does not provide the same authority as traditional conservatorships to place individuals into treatment facilities.
Officials said the data will inform budget decisions for the next fiscal year. California reported a 2.8% homelessness decline in 2025, its first drop since 2016, while the national figure fell 3.3%.
The Breakdown
- The 2025 count recorded 4,905 people experiencing homelessness across Fresno and Madera counties on January 28, 2025 — 412 more than the 4,493 counted in 2023, a 9.2% increase.
- The Continuum of Care submitted locally validated results to HUD on May 19, 2025, but withheld public release until HUD posted its national report.
- The 2026 count used a new survey-based method instead of visual tallies. Preliminary unvalidated 2026 figures show 3,254 people (1,619 unsheltered, 1,635 sheltered), but unsheltered individuals who declined the survey are excluded from that total.
- Mayor Dyer said approximately 250 people per month use shelter beds and that the city has not turned away someone seeking a shelter bed. He cited conservatorship authority as a gap in addressing homelessness among individuals with severe mental illness.
- Officials said the 2025 data will inform next year’s budget and that the 2026 count will serve as a new baseline for future planning.
What This Means for You
Fresno and Madera county elected officials — Mayor Dyer, Supervisor Chavez, and the Continuum of Care they fund — control homelessness services spending. This count is the data those officials say they rely on to decide where that money goes in next year’s budget.
The 2025 count shows homelessness rising in Fresno-Madera while California overall saw a decline. The 2026 count’s preliminary figures suggest a different trend, but the methodology changed in a way that excludes people who decline a survey — meaning the apparent drop may reflect who got counted, not who is actually on the streets.
When you vote for Mayor, County Supervisor, or city council, you are voting for the officials who decide whether the current spending and approach are working or whether the region needs a different strategy.
What to Watch
Mayor Dyer said approximately 250 people per month use shelter beds and that the city tracks monthly service acceptance and housing placements. The material does not state how many people accepted housing, how many remained housed six months or a year later, or how the 250-per-month shelter figure compares to the 4,905 people counted as homeless.
If 250 people per month used a shelter bed over 12 months, that is 3,000 uses — but the material does not state whether those are 3,000 different people or the same smaller group cycling through repeatedly. That distinction determines whether the shelter system is moving people into housing or merely providing temporary overnight relief to a fixed population.
The 2026 methodology excludes unsheltered individuals who declined to complete the survey. The preliminary 2026 figure of 3,254 is 1,651 fewer than the 2025 validated count of 4,905 — a 33.7% apparent drop.
The material does not state how many unsheltered individuals declined the survey or whether the decline rate was higher in 2026 than in prior years. If a significant number of people declined and were excluded, the 2026 count may understate homelessness rather than documenting an actual decrease.
Dyer said conservatorship authority is needed to place individuals with severe mental illness into treatment facilities and that CARE Court “got watered down” during the legislative process. The material does not state what specific authority CARE Court removed, what authority traditional conservatorships provide that CARE Court does not, or whether the city or county has sought conservatorships under existing law and been denied.
The legislative history of the CARE Court statute, the city’s or county’s own petitions for conservatorship (if any), and court records of conservatorship proceedings in Fresno County would show whether the barrier is the law itself or the cost and process of using the law.
